Introduction: Bitcoin on the Threshold of 2025

Bitcoin, as the pioneer and largest digital currency in terms of market value, continues to play a pivotal and unparalleled role in the global financial ecosystem. The year 2025 has been a year full of significant transformations and new prospects for this digital asset. These transformations include a notable increase in institutional adoption, technological advancements in secondary layers, and changes in market dynamics, all of which have influenced its position in the global financial system. This year has placed Bitcoin on a path toward greater maturity and consolidation of its position as a global asset.  

Despite the emergence of thousands of altcoins and increasing diversity in the digital currencies market, Bitcoin is still regarded as "digital gold" and the primary asset. This position is not only due to its longer history and pioneering role in the digital assets space, but also strengthened by its inherent features such as unparalleled network security and a limited supply of 21 million units. The proof-of-work (PoW) mechanism, which underpins Bitcoin's security, protects it from manipulation and malicious attacks, and these features have turned Bitcoin into an attractive "store of value", even though it was initially designed as a "peer-to-peer electronic cash". The increasing adoption of Bitcoin by traditional financial institutions and even some governments in 2025 has further reinforced this "digital gold" narrative and demonstrates the remarkable maturity of this asset on the global stage.  

The year 2025 is considered a critical period in Bitcoin's lifecycle, as it follows the halving (Halving) event in April 2024. This halving reduced the miners' reward by half, an event that has historically been associated with significant Bitcoin price increases. However, Bitcoin's performance in the months following the 2024 halving, compared to previous cycles, has been recorded as the "weakest" performance. This "weak performance" after the 2024 halving creates an apparent contradiction with the strong bullish forecasts for 2025. Analysis of this situation shows that the reason for this contradiction lies in "unprecedented institutional capital inflows" and "macroeconomic factors" that have disrupted historical price patterns. Traditionally, halvings led to significant price increases in the 12 months following due to reduced new Bitcoin supply. But in 2024 and 2025, this trend has changed due to macroeconomic uncertainties, such as global trade tensions and Federal Reserve interest rate policies, as well as the growing role of institutional capital through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that had large inflows even before the halving. This transformation indicates that the Bitcoin market is maturing and is no longer solely influenced by halving cycles, but more complex institutional and macroeconomic factors also play a significant role in determining its price and dynamics.  

Section One: Introduction and Fundamentals of Bitcoin

History and Emergence

The emergence of Bitcoin at the height of the global financial crisis in 2007-2008 was a historical turning point in the evolution of monetary systems and technology. During this period, an unknown person or group under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto published a whitepaper titled "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System". This document introduced the concept of peer-to-peer electronic cash that did not require traditional financial intermediaries like banks or governments to facilitate transactions. The timing of this whitepaper's release was not coincidental; the 2008 financial crisis revealed the weaknesses of the centralized banking system and the need for trust in intermediary institutions. Nakamoto proposed a solution to the "double-spending" problem without the need for a central authority by presenting Bitcoin, which directly responded to this lack of trust and provided a vision of a financial system independent of central banks' policies. This approach laid the foundations for a financial revolution aimed at returning control of money to individuals.

The Bitcoin whitepaper introduced fundamental and innovative concepts that form the basis of blockchain technology and digital currencies. These concepts included decentralization, the proof-of-work (Proof-of-Work or PoW) consensus mechanism, and the blockchain technology itself. These innovations provided security, transparency, and resistance to censorship in a digital financial system. Although the Bitcoin whitepaper seemed revolutionary, many of its concepts (such as cryptography and electronic money systems) were built on previous research, including David Chaum's work in the 1980s. The main innovation and genius of Nakamoto was in intelligently combining these existing concepts to solve the "double-spending" problem in a completely decentralized environment. Nakamoto created a self-sustaining and manipulation-resistant system by using hash functions to maintain blockchain security and efficiency and the proof-of-work mechanism to incentivize miners to maintain network integrity. This unprecedented combination turned Bitcoin into the first successful application of blockchain technology and paved the way for the development of thousands of altcoins and other blockchain applications in various industries.

The true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin, remains unknown and has become one of the greatest mysteries in the world of technology. Speculations have focused on various individuals such as Hal Finney (a cryptography pioneer and the first recipient of a Bitcoin transaction), Nick Szabo (creator of the Bit Gold concept), Dorian Prentice Satoshi Nakamoto (who has a similar name), David Kleiman, and even Craig Wright (who claims to be Nakamoto). Nakamoto's anonymity has not only added to the mystery and appeal of Bitcoin, but has also helped strengthen its decentralization principle. The absence of a central leader prevents the network from depending on a specific individual or entity and increases its resistance to external pressures, whether from governments or companies. His disappearance from the Bitcoin community in 2011 and the non-movement of millions of Bitcoin belonging to him that have never been transferred reinforces the idea that he deliberately stepped aside to maintain the project's decentralization and independence. This allows Bitcoin to evolve as an independent entity, free from the influence of a specific individual or group, and remain committed to its primary goal of a truly decentralized monetary system.

Bitcoin as Money and Asset

Bitcoin was initially designed as a "peer-to-peer cash" aimed at facilitating direct transactions between individuals without the need for financial intermediaries. However, in 2025, the main debate surrounding its role as a "store of value" versus a "medium of exchange" continues. Many economists believe that Bitcoin does not yet fully meet the criteria of money (store of value, medium of exchange, unit of account). The high price volatility of Bitcoin throughout history and transaction fees (which have also experienced fluctuations in 2025) have led it to be used more as a store of value (like gold) rather than a daily payment tool. The severe price fluctuations of Bitcoin make retailers reluctant to accept it directly, as its value can change in a short time and lead to losses. This has led to the emergence of payment service providers that convert Bitcoin to fiat currencies, but this also incurs additional costs and complicates the process. In contrast, Bitcoin's limited supply of 21 million units and its inherent resistance to inflation (due to lack of control by any central entity) have made it an attractive asset for preserving purchasing power in the long term. This duality in application has created an active and dynamic debate in the Bitcoin community, with strong views from supporters of both approaches. However, advancements in layer-two (Layer 2) solutions in 2025 are attempting to reduce scalability and fee limitations and improve Bitcoin's potential as a medium of exchange.  

Since its inception, Bitcoin's applications have evolved beyond initial and specific transactions. In the early stages, Bitcoin was mainly used by a small community of cryptography enthusiasts and for specific applications, including in black markets like SilkRoad. Over time and with increasing public awareness, its role as an investment asset became prominent and found its way to regulated exchange platforms (such as Coinbase). This evolution demonstrates Bitcoin's maturity and its movement from an "experimental protocol" to a "legitimate financial asset", although challenges such as "use in illegal activities" in the past still exist. In 2025, with the emergence of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States and increased corporate adoption by companies like MicroStrategy, Bitcoin has increasingly entered the mainstream financial flow. This trend has changed the perception of Bitcoin from a marginal tool to a potential and even strategic component in diverse investment portfolios. This change in adoption and application demonstrates increasing trust in Bitcoin's long-term potential as a global asset.  

Section Two: Market Status and Volatility in 2025

Price and Market Value

Bitcoin price forecasts for 2025 are highly diverse and predominantly bullish, indicating widespread optimism in the market. Some analysts predict that Bitcoin will trade between 116,000 and 120,000 dollars in August 2025 and has the potential to reach 125,000 to 150,000 dollars if institutional inflows and positive macroeconomic factors continue. Monthly forecasts for the second half of 2025 also show an upward trend, with average prices from 120,000 dollars in August to 130,000 dollars in November. Some bolder forecasts consider reaching 200,000 dollars by the end of 2025 possible. ARK Invest analysts have also proposed long-term forecasts up to 700,000 dollars and 1.5 million dollars for 2030, with a bullish scenario even reaching 2.4 million dollars.  

The differences in these forecasts indicate the speculative nature of the digital currencies market and its dependence on various models and different assumptions. Bullish forecasts are mainly based on factors such as unprecedented institutional capital inflows, increasing regulatory clarity, and technological advancements in the Bitcoin ecosystem. These key factors now influence Bitcoin price dynamics more than the traditional "halving cycle" that was previously the main price driver. The adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, pro-crypto government policies (especially with the change in US government), and increasing demand from corporate treasuries (such as MicroStrategy) are all considered powerful drivers for price growth.

On August 11, 2025, Bitcoin's market value was approximately 2.381 trillion dollars. This figure shows a significant increase compared to 1.160 trillion dollars a year ago (105.3% growth) and 1.797 trillion dollars on March 5, 2025. The remarkable growth in Bitcoin's market value in 2025, despite the "weakest post-halving performance", indicates significant capital inflows and increased trust in this asset, especially from institutions. This growth is not only due to the increase in Bitcoin price but also from the increase in circulating supply. This trend reflects increased demand from retail investors and especially institutions that place Bitcoin as a strategic asset in their portfolios. This trend transforms Bitcoin from a purely speculative asset to an asset with broader adoption and a stronger position in the global financial ecosystem.  

Table 1: Bitcoin Price Forecasts in 2025 and Beyond

This table allows the reader to view a wide range of price forecasts at a glance. By comparing different forecasts and their reasons, the reader can gain a deeper understanding of market uncertainties and the various factors affecting Bitcoin price. This adds transparency and credibility to the report and helps investors have more realistic expectations.

Volatility Intensity and Effective Factors

Bitcoin has traditionally been a high-volatility asset that has experienced severe price changes due to its emerging nature and relatively small market in the early years. However, in 2025, new trends in its volatility intensity are observed. After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin's 60-day price volatility has sharply decreased; from over 200% in 2012 to about 50% in 2025, indicating significant market maturity. Reduced volatility is a sign of broader adoption and Bitcoin gaining legitimacy as a financial asset. This can help attract more conservative investors and traditional financial institutions seeking greater stability. In the early stages, the Bitcoin market was small and influenced by intense speculation, leading to very high volatility. With increasing market value and the entry of larger players, liquidity has increased, and this gradually reduces volatility. This change pushes Bitcoin toward playing the role of a "safe asset" in the long term.

Macroeconomic factors play an increasing role in determining Bitcoin volatility. In the first quarter of 2025, macroeconomic uncertainties, such as escalating global trade tensions and increased risk-aversion sentiments, have affected Bitcoin's performance. Delays in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and new tariff threats from the US government have led to price corrections and Bitcoin dropping below 90,000 dollars. This shows that Bitcoin, despite its decentralized nature, is increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic events and government policies. This phenomenon indicates that the crypto market is no longer an isolated island but is intertwined with traditional financial markets. With increased institutional adoption and large capital inflows, Bitcoin behaves more like other risky assets in traditional markets. Central bank decisions (such as the Federal Reserve) and geopolitical developments (such as trade tensions) that affect global liquidity and risk-taking sentiments directly impact capital flows to digital assets and consequently Bitcoin volatility.  

Regulatory developments and institutional capital inflows have also had a dual impact on Bitcoin volatility. Regulatory clarity, especially the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), has played a pivotal role in Bitcoin's growth in 2024 and 2025 and has led to significant "institutional inflows". These flows are the main driver of bullish price forecasts. While institutional entry can help long-term price stability, in the short term, large inflows and outflows from ETFs can also increase volatility. ETFs provide a regulated and easy way for institutional and traditional investors to invest in Bitcoin without the need for direct custody. This has led to attracting billions of dollars in capital and increasingly affects Bitcoin price, even more than the halving impact. However, the behavior of "whales" (including these institutions) that buy and sell on a large scale can lead to price corrections after large inflows to exchanges.  

Finally, security events and breaches have also impacted market sentiments and volatility. In the first quarter of 2025, major security breaches in exchanges, such as the 1.5 billion dollar security breach in Bybit, have led to Bitcoin price declines and weakened investor trust. Despite the inherent security of the Bitcoin blockchain that has never been hacked, vulnerabilities in the broader ecosystem (such as exchanges and centralized platforms) remain a significant risk for investor trust and short-term price volatility. The security of the Bitcoin blockchain is ensured through the proof-of-work mechanism and data distribution across multiple nodes. However, exchanges and centralized platforms that hold users' assets are points of vulnerability. Security breaches in these platforms, even if not related to the Bitcoin protocol itself, can lead to panic selling, reduced liquidity, and severe price volatility, as trust in the overall crypto ecosystem decreases.  

Major Exchanges and Trading Volume

In 2025, the digital currencies market is driven by a handful of large and powerful exchanges that account for massive trading volumes. Based on available data, exchanges such as Binance, Bybit, Crypto.com Exchange, Gate, MEXC, OKX, Coinbase Exchange, HTX, and Bitget are among the top ones in terms of average daily trading volume. In addition, Kraken, Gemini, Bitfinex, and eToro are also among the reputable and well-known exchanges in 2025 that provide diverse services to users. The concentration of trading volume in a few large exchanges indicates "liquidity concentration" in the digital currencies market, which can affect "price discovery" and "arbitrage opportunities".  

Analysis of daily trading volume in these leading exchanges provides a clear picture of market dynamics. Binance, with an average daily volume of 16.29 billion dollars, clearly leads the market and has a significant gap with other competitors. Bybit with 4.2 billion dollars and Crypto.com with 3.58 billion dollars are in the next ranks. The high trading volume in centralized exchanges, despite Bitcoin's decentralized nature, indicates users' dependence on these intermediaries for access and trading. This highlights the debate on "security" and "oversight" of these platforms. Centralized exchanges, by providing easy user interfaces, deep liquidity, and advanced trading tools (such as margin and futures trading), are attractive to most users, especially newcomers. However, these platforms act as central points of failure and are exposed to cyber attacks; for example, Bybit experienced a major 1.5 billion dollar hack in early 2025. These risks emphasize the importance of "security" and "oversight" in choosing an exchange, as well as using security measures such as two-factor authentication and cold storage.  

Alongside global exchanges, Iranian digital currency exchanges also play an important role in facilitating domestic users' access to the Bitcoin market. These exchanges are suitable options for Iranian users due to Persian language support and payment options through the Shatab card network. Among the reputable Iranian exchanges in 2025 are Exir, Aban Tether, BitPin, Bit24, Tabdil, Nobitex, Valex, Excoino, OK Exchange, and Ramzinex. Exchanges like Nobitex are known as the first knowledge-based cryptocurrency exchange platform and provide easy authentication. Valex also provides a secure environment for users with acceptable trading volume and support for 142 trading currencies. OK Exchange supports about 15 popular digital currencies and has reasonable fees. BitPin also focuses on high security through Cold Storage techniques and two-factor authentication, supporting the majority of famous currencies. These exchanges strive to improve the user experience for Iranian traders by providing diverse services and 24-hour support.  

Table 2: Top Digital Currency Exchanges and Average Daily Trading Volume (2025)

This table helps readers identify major exchanges in terms of liquidity and asset diversity. This information is vital for investors and traders to choose the appropriate platform for their activities, especially considering the importance of liquidity in executing strategies like arbitrage.

Section Three: Bitcoin Network Structure and Decentralization

Decentralization Principles

Decentralization is the cornerstone of Bitcoin's philosophy and architecture, distinguishing it from traditional financial systems. Bitcoin operates on a decentralized network of nodes that eliminates the need for central authorities like banks or governments to facilitate transactions. This decentralized architecture ensures the network's integrity and security by distributing control among participants. The primary goal of Satoshi Nakamoto was to create an electronic cash system "without the need for trust" in intermediaries. This is achieved through the distribution of the ledger (blockchain) among thousands of nodes and consensus via the proof-of-work (PoW) mechanism. This design provides resistance to censorship and seizure, allowing users to be "their own bank". These features have turned Bitcoin into a unique asset in the global financial landscape.

The role of nodes and miners in maintaining Bitcoin network security and integrity is vital. Miners (network participants) validate transactions and add them to the blockchain by solving complex mathematical puzzles. This process ensures the immutability and reliability of the blockchain ledger. Nodes also help validate transactions and maintain network integrity by keeping a complete and up-to-date copy ofthe blockchain. Economic incentives, including block rewards (Block Reward) and transaction fees (Transaction Fees), form the backbone of network security. The proof-of-work mechanism requires significant energy consumption. Miners rely on block rewards and transaction fees to offset these costs and profit. After the 2024 halving, the block reward was reduced to 3.125 Bitcoin. This makes miners more dependent on transaction fees. The increase in on-chain activities such as Ordinals tokens and BRC-20 in 2025 has helped increase fees and maintains miners' incentives for continuing their vital activities in preserving network security.

Decentralization Challenges and Debates

Despite the fundamental principles of decentralization, Bitcoin faces challenges and debates in this area. One of these challenges is the concentration of computational power in mining pools. Although the Bitcoin network is designed to be "open" for everyone's participation and anyone can participate with any amount of computational power, the need for high computational power has led to "physical and virtual clustering" of mining devices and consequently "significant concentration in computational power". This clustering encourages miners to join mining pools due to greater efficiency and increased chances of finding blocks. Although this concentration has not yet reached a level that endangers network security (such as a 51% attack), it is an ongoing concern in the Bitcoin community. About 10 to 15 main pools hold the network's mining power, and Foundry and AntPool alone control more than 50% of the market hash rate.

Another debate challenging Bitcoin's decentralization relates to the "concentration of core Bitcoin development". This development is in the hands of a few "golden key holders" who do not necessarily have direct incentives to act in the interest of the entire network. This development concentration creates a "potential weakness" for Bitcoin's ideological decentralization, as protocol changes can be influenced by the views of a small group. Core Bitcoin developers are responsible for maintaining and improving the protocol code. Their decisions on features and protocol changes can have a profound impact on Bitcoin's future. This raises concerns about whether this small group can unintentionally or intentionally steer the network toward greater centralization.

The distribution of Bitcoin among "whales" (Whales) is another important aspect in the decentralization debate and market dynamics. "Whales" are investors who hold thousands of Bitcoin, often including institutions, funds, or old holders (OG holders) from Bitcoin's early days. In 2025, the number of wallets holding more than 100 Bitcoin has reached a new record (about 19,000 addresses). Also, the number of wallets with more than 1,000 Bitcoin has increased to 1,455 in May 2025, indicating a new wave of accumulation. Although only 2% of Bitcoin addresses control more than 90% of the supply, most of these are cold wallets and exchanges, showing that "actual concentration in individuals' hands" is less than what raw data suggests. However, the behavior of these whales, especially large institutions like MicroStrategy and BlackRock that control about 6% of the total Bitcoin supply, has a significant impact on price dynamics. Whales can drive prices up with large-scale purchases and profit by selling during market peaks. Data shows that older whales tend to hold long-term, while newer whales (such as hedge funds) are more likely to seek short-term profits. This dual behavior adds more complexity to market analysis and shows that whales' influence depends not only on the amount of asset but also on their trading strategies.  

Table 3: Bitcoin Asset Distribution Among Whales and Institutions (2025)

This table helps clarify the decentralization debate. By distinguishing between individual whales and institutional/exchange wallets, a more accurate understanding of who really influences the market can be obtained. This information is vital for assessing risks associated with concentration as well as the potential for volatility from actions of major market players.

Section Four: Innovations and New Applications in the Bitcoin Ecosystem

Layer 2 Solutions

Layer 2 solutions for Bitcoin in 2025 have become a vital element for unlocking the full potential of the Bitcoin ecosystem. These solutions help increase transaction throughput, enable programmable capabilities (such as smart contracts), and reduce fees by processing transactions off the main chain and then settling the results on the main Bitcoin network.

The Lightning Network is the most prominent and well-known layer 2 solution for Bitcoin that enables fast and low-cost payments. In 2025, significant advancements have been observed in this network, including smarter routing, simpler wallet integration, and improved privacy features that make it more user-friendly for daily transactions and retailers. Interestingly, the reduction in the Lightning Network's public capacity in 2025 (about 20% decrease from 5,400 to 4,200 Bitcoin) does not necessarily indicate decreased adoption, but reflects "structural evolution in routing" and "emergence of private channels" that are not reflected in public metrics. The Lightning Network enables instant and cheap transactions by opening private payment channels between users, with only the final result recorded on the main blockchain. This addresses the scalability and high fee limitations of Bitcoin's layer one. The reduction in public capacity may be due to greater use of private channels as well as the launch of USDT (Tether) on Lightning via Taproot Assets, which does not require locking Bitcoin in channels and separates usage from Bitcoin capacity.  

Sidechains and rollups also play an important role in increasing scalability and smart contract capabilities on the Bitcoin base. Sidechains are independent blockchains pegged to Bitcoin that enable access to features like smart contracts and faster transaction processing. These sidechains can be used to test capabilities whose implementation on the main Bitcoin network would be risky. Rollups are a newer innovation that process transactions on separate networks and then send compressed cryptographic proofs to the Bitcoin blockchain. This design enables massive throughput and advanced DeFi and smart contract applications. Projects like Bitcoin Hyper use these solutions (such as using Solana Virtual Machine) to add smart contract capabilities to Bitcoin. These layer 2 solutions are "revolutionizing users' interaction with the Bitcoin network", enabling faster, cheaper, and more diverse applications while preserving the main blockchain's security. This allows Bitcoin to compete with newer blockchains in DeFi and dApps. Bitcoin, due to its initial design, has limitations in smart contracts and dApps. Sidechains and rollups address these limitations by creating separate execution layers, allowing developers to create innovations on the secure Bitcoin base. These advancements, especially with the increase in Total Value Locked (TVL) in Bitcoin layer twos (reaching over 52,000 Bitcoin or 5.5 billion dollars in mid-2025), indicate real demand from developers and users to expand Bitcoin applications beyond merely "store of value".  

The impact of these layer 2 solutions on expanding DeFi and dApps applications in the Bitcoin ecosystem is notable. The emergence of DeFi protocols built directly on Bitcoin layer twos has gained attention in 2025. Investments in the BitcoinFi sector reached 175 million dollars in the first half of 2025, with 20 out of 32 deals focused on DeFi, applications, and custody services. This trend indicates a "paradigm shift" in the Bitcoin ecosystem, transforming it from a network primarily for value transfer to a "multi-purpose platform" for decentralized financial innovations. In the past, DeFi was mainly focused on blockchains like Ethereum. But with layer 2 advancements, using Bitcoin's security and liquidity for DeFi applications has become possible. This creates new opportunities for investors and developers and can attract more liquidity to the Bitcoin ecosystem.  

Ordinals Tokens and BRC-20

Ordinals protocols and BRC-20 tokens (as well as the newer Runes) have accounted for a significant portion of Bitcoin on-chain activities in the first half of 2025. These protocols constituted 40.6% of all Bitcoin transactions in this period. BRC-20 token trading volume reached 128 million dollars on active days, and over 80 million Ordinals inscriptions were created by mid-2025, generating 6,940 Bitcoin (about 681 million dollars) in fees for the network.

The growth of Ordinals and BRC-20 indicates "application diversity" and "increased demand for Bitcoin block space" beyond mere value transfer. This helps "maintain miners' incentives" through increased fees, especially after the 2024 halving which halved the block reward and made miners' income more dependent on fees. While some in the Bitcoin community consider these protocols "shitcoinery and monkey pictures" and believe the Bitcoin blockchain should be used solely for money, data shows they have played an important role in increasing on-chain activities and miners' income. This indicates a "change in the nature of Bitcoin blockchain usage" transforming it from a purely financial ledger to a platform for more diverse digital assets, including NFTs and fungible tokens. These developments have sparked heated debates in the Bitcoin community, but in practice, they have helped miners' economic sustainability and network application expansion.  

Investments and New Financial Products

The year 2025 has seen a significant increase in investments and the introduction of new financial products in the Bitcoin ecosystem, indicating the maturity and increasing adoption of this asset in traditional financial markets. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States have experienced remarkable success in 2024 and 2025, attracting significant inflows. These ETFs provide a low-cost and regulated way for investors to participate in the Bitcoin market without the need for direct Bitcoin custody. The success of ETFs indicates "Bitcoin gaining legitimacy in traditional financial markets" and acts as a "main demand driver" that can disrupt historical post-halving patterns. ETFs reduce entry barriers for institutional and retail investors and enable access to Bitcoin through traditional brokerage accounts. This has led to attracting billions of dollars in capital and increasingly affects Bitcoin price, even more than the halving impact.

Venture capital (VC) investments in the Bitcoin ecosystem and related startups have also boomed in 2025. In the first quarter of 2025, venture capitalists invested 4.8 billion dollars (+54% compared to the previous quarter) in crypto and blockchain-focused startups. The trading/exchange/investment/lending sectors (2.55 billion dollars) and DeFi (763 million dollars) attracted the most capital. The increase in VC investment, especially in later-stage companies and areas like DeFi and infrastructure, indicates "crypto ecosystem maturity" and "investors' confidence in long-term potential", even if the correlation between Bitcoin price and VC activity has weakened in the past year. VC investment in later stages shows that projects have moved beyond the "idea" stage and toward "practical products and services". This helps the growth and development of necessary infrastructures for broader Bitcoin adoption and its applications.  

The introduction of innovative projects has also greatly helped expand Bitcoin applications. Projects like Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) in 2025 aim to add smart contract and DeFi capabilities to Bitcoin through layer 2 solutions (such as using Solana Virtual Machine) and are under development. These projects indicate "efforts to overcome Bitcoin's inherent limitations" as a layer one blockchain and "expand its applications beyond merely store of value". While Bitcoin is prominent for security and store of value, it lags behind blockchains like Ethereum and Solana in programmability and transaction speed. Projects like Bitcoin Hyper try to bridge this gap by creating layer twos, allowing users to use Bitcoin in DeFi, dApps, and NFTs while still benefiting from the main Bitcoin layer's security. This helps increase "Bitcoin's efficiency and appeal" for a wider range of users.  

Section Five: Future Outlook and Expert Analyses

Long-Term Price Forecasts

Long-term Bitcoin price forecasts from major financial institutions indicate increasing optimism about this asset's future. ARK Invest has very bullish forecasts for Bitcoin by 2030: 300,000 dollars (in bearish scenario), 710,000 dollars (in base scenario), and 2.4 million dollars (in bullish scenario). The logic behind these forecasts is based on the assumption of attracting 6.5% of the 200 trillion dollars global investable assets and 60% annual growth in Bitcoin-based financial infrastructures. This model considers Bitcoin not only as "digital gold" but also as a "safe haven in emerging markets" and "institutional investment tool".  

Standard Chartered also forecasts Bitcoin reaching 200,000 dollars by the end of 2025 and 500,000 dollars by 2028. Their logic is based on "strong ETF flows" and "corporate treasury demand" that eliminates the post-halving correction pattern. These long-term forecasts indicate a "change in traditional financial institutions' view" of Bitcoin, transforming it from a speculative asset to a "strategic asset" and "global store of value" in the future. Bitcoin's scarcity (fixed supply of 21 million) and reduced supply on exchanges (about 3 million Bitcoin remaining) alongside increasing demand will lead to significant long-term price increases.  

Multiple factors affect Bitcoin's long-term growth. Adoption by funds, emerging markets, and national reserves points to Bitcoin's increasing importance in times of uncertainty. Regulatory clarity and pro-crypto frameworks, such as the MiCA law in Europe and US government policies, play a vital role in long-term growth. The convergence of "increasing institutional adoption", "regulatory clarity", and "Bitcoin's scarce nature" (especially after halvings) creates a "positive feedback loop" that can lead to exponential long-term growth. As more institutions adopt Bitcoin, its legitimacy increases, in turn encouraging governments to create clearer regulatory frameworks. This clarity attracts more investors and increases demand. Alongside this, future halvings (such as the 2028 halving) reduce new supply and create "supply shocks" that, if demand remains steady or increases, drive prices upward.  

Bitcoin's Role in the Global Financial System

Bitcoin is expected, with increased adoption, to transform from a high-risk asset with high volatility to a "safe asset" with low volatility. In 2024, Bitcoin and gold had the best performance among assets, and this trend is expected to continue in 2025. This evolution means a "change in Bitcoin's position" in global investment portfolios, which can turn it into a "potential alternative" for traditional assets like gold and even government bonds. Bitcoin, due to its decentralized nature and lack of dependence on central entities, can act as a "hedge against government default" or "fiat currency devaluation". This feature makes it attractive in times of economic and geopolitical uncertainties and can lead to capital transfer from gold and bonds to Bitcoin, which has the potential to reach a market value similar to gold (and thus much higher prices).  

Bitcoin's impact on global monetary and fiscal policies is also notable. Adoption of blockchain in general and interest in central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is increasing. However, the Citi Institute report (April 2025) shows that CBDCs are typically not based on public blockchains, and stablecoins (mostly dollar-based) may play the role of "Eurodollar 2.0". The existence of Bitcoin as a "decentralized alternative" (even if imperfect) for centralized financial services can help "greater decentralization and higher security" in the overall financial system. This also affects debates around CBDCs and stablecoins and highlights the need for a comprehensive regulatory framework. Bitcoin, by providing an alternative monetary system, increases pressure on central banks and governments for more innovation and transparency. While CBDCs and stablecoins are efforts to digitize fiat money, Bitcoin remains a completely independent and decentralized asset. This competition can benefit consumers, as it drives financial systems toward greater efficiency and security.  

Arbitrage Opportunities

Arbitrage in the digital currencies market involves buying a digital currency at a low price on one platform and selling it at a higher price on another platform to exploit the price difference. Common types of arbitrage strategies include cross-exchange arbitrage (between different exchanges), intra-exchange arbitrage (between different trading products on one exchange, such as spot and futures), triangular arbitrage (between three different digital currencies on one exchange), and statistical arbitrage (using mathematical models and algorithms to identify short-term price differences). The existence of these opportunities indicates "inefficiency" and "price heterogeneity" in the digital currencies market, which, despite relative maturity, has not yet reached the level of traditional financial markets. The digital currencies market, due to its global and 24-hour nature, as well as the existence of numerous exchanges with varying liquidity, is prone to price differences. These differences create arbitrage opportunities.

The role of arbitrage bots and related technologies has become very prominent in 2025. These bots automatically identify and trade price difference opportunities, offering advantages such as high speed and accuracy, 24/7 operations, backtesting capability for strategy improvement, and trading without human emotional influence. Exchanges like Binance and OKX have built-in arbitrage bots, and platforms like Cryptohopper collaborate with several major exchanges. Automation through bots has "greatly increased competition in the arbitrage space" and "reduced profit margins" for manual traders. Speed is critical in arbitrage, as opportunities disappear quickly. Bots can identify and exploit price differences faster than humans. This makes the market more efficient but at the same time makes arbitrage profitability more difficult for individual traders without advanced tools.

In the Iranian market, platforms like Tokenbaz and ArzPaya allow users to compare Bitcoin and other digital currencies prices on domestic and foreign exchanges. Tokenbaz displays arbitrage opportunities for free and calculates the Tether arbitrage profit percentage between two exchanges. These platforms help users identify the best buying and selling opportunities by comparing prices and fees across different exchanges. To exploit arbitrage in Iranian exchanges, it is recommended to register and complete full authentication on several high-liquidity exchanges (such as Nobitex, Tetherland, Aban Tether, and Ramzinex) as well as a lower-liquidity exchange. Lower-liquidity exchanges may change prices more slowly during severe market fluctuations and provide greater profit opportunities. Despite potential profitability, arbitrage in the volatile digital currencies market has its own challenges and risks. This field is highly competitive. Risks such as trading fees, withdrawal costs, network fees, and slippage can reduce net profit. Despite potential profitability, arbitrage in the crypto market requires "speed, accuracy, and appropriate tools" and cannot be a stable income source for everyone alone.  

Social Networks Analysis and Bitcoin Community

Social networks like X (formerly Twitter) and Reddit are the main platforms for discussion, sentiment analysis, and news dissemination in the crypto community. Public sentiment analysis (Sentiment Analysis) on these platforms involves data collection, content labeling (positive, negative, neutral), and training machine learning models to predict market sentiments. Sentiments on social networks, especially in 2025, have been heavily influenced by "US political and regulatory developments", indicating "governments' increasing influence" on the crypto market. Statements by government officials (such as Donald Trump) and regulatory decisions (such as tariff delays) can quickly change market sentiments and lead to price volatility. This shows that the crypto community, despite its decentralization ideology, reacts strongly to political and regulatory spaces, especially in large economies like the United States.

Multiple key debates are ongoing in the Bitcoin community, especially on platforms like Reddit. One of the most important is "Bitcoin maximalism" (Bitcoin Maximalism), which believes Bitcoin is the only valid digital currency and other altcoins are useless or even scams. This view was strengthened after the "Bitcoin Civil War" over scalability and the failure of crypto projects in 2022. Bitcoin maximalism, while "strengthening belief in Bitcoin's power", can "limit innovation and adoption in the broader crypto ecosystem" and prevent "examining potential solutions from other blockchains". Maximalists emphasize Bitcoin's unparalleled security, decentralization, and fixed supply. They believe any problem in Bitcoin is solvable. However, critics argue that this view can hinder adopting useful innovations from altcoins, especially in areas like smart contracts and scalability where Bitcoin has limitations. Recent debates on Ordinals and BRC-20 on Reddit also show this gap: some consider them "shitcoinery", while others find them useful for increasing miners' fees.  

Influential personalities and prominent commentators also play an important role in shaping public opinion and directing the Bitcoin market. Personalities like Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy executive) who is a Bitcoin maximalist and whose company has purchased over 150,000 Bitcoin, are influential. Alex Tapscott (CEO of Ninepoint Digital Asset Group) and Jeff Kendrick (head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered) are also prominent analysts providing bullish forecasts for Bitcoin. Donald Trump has also become an influential figure by entering the crypto space and making supportive statements. The influence of these figures in 2025 goes beyond mere commentary; they directly impact "market sentiments" and "institutional adoption" with "large investments" and "policy changes". Michael Saylor has created a model for other companies with MicroStrategy's Bitcoin buying strategy for treasury. Statements and actions by political figures like Trump can also lead to increased interest and investment in crypto. Jack Dorsey, CEO of Block Inc., is also a staunch Bitcoin supporter, and his company is developing Bitcoin mining hardware and integrating Bitcoin payments into Cash App, with the view that Bitcoin should be used as everyday money. This shows that the Bitcoin market is increasingly shaped by large and influential players, both in the financial and political sectors.  

Table 4: Important Bitcoin Events in 2025

This table helps readers track key events that can impact Bitcoin price and adoption. This information is highly valuable for investors and analysts to make informed decisions in a dynamic market.

Conclusion and Recommendations

The year 2025 for Bitcoin has been a year of "maturity and institutional adoption". Despite relatively weak performance after the 2024 halving compared to previous cycles, massive inflows through ETFs and increased corporate investments have kept prices at high levels and made long-term forecasts very bullish. Bitcoin volatility, although still notable, is decreasing, indicating its stabilization as a financial asset. This volatility reduction, along with increased liquidity and entry of major players, is gradually pushing Bitcoin toward playing the role of a "safe asset" in investment portfolios.

Decentralization challenges, especially in mining (due to computational power concentration in large pools) and development (due to control concentration in a limited number of core developers), remain and have sparked heated debates in the Bitcoin community. The distribution of assets in the hands of "whales" is another factor affecting market dynamics, although a major part of this concentration relates to cold wallets and exchanges. However, innovations in layer twos (such as Lightning Network, sidechains, and rollups) and protocols like Ordinals and BRC-20 have expanded Bitcoin applications and helped scalability and fee increases (and thus miners' incentives). These advancements transform Bitcoin from an asset solely for value transfer to a multi-purpose platform for decentralized financial innovations. Social networks and influential figures play an important role in shaping